Affordability and Population Projections

In 2019, rennie & associates© prepared population and dwelling projections for the CVRD with an outlook to 2050. These projections were subsequently updated by Licker Geospatial in 2022 based on new growth containment boundaries (GCB) within the electoral areas, updated Census population, household, and demographic information, as well as recent development data. Projections for the CVRD (including both incorporated communities and electoral areas) were completed using a historic trends-influenced forecast that assumes a near-term continuation of accelerated growth resulting from intra-provincial migration due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Additional factors influencing growth include the availability of developable land in the region as well as sufficient water capacity and expanded sewer infrastructure. Demographic projections assume the continued in-migration of young families to the area as well as significant in-migration of seniors to all electoral areas. Declines in fertility are expected to continue as will overall declines in mortality, which will lead to a steady growth rate between now and 2032 and on to 2050.

Overall population growth in the electoral areas is expected to increase to 1.16% annually between 2021 and 2027, which is an increase over the 1.06% growth rate experienced between 2016 and 2021. Between 2027 and 2032 population growth should slow to approximately 1.04% annualized. Given the structural and demographic trends outlined above, we expected an annual population growth rate of approximately 1.15% between 2021 and 2050.

Dwelling growth will mirror population growth, though at a slightly slower rate than population growth (reflecting increased occupancy of owner-occupied dwellings) with dwelling growth increasing from 0.88% annually between 2016 and 2021 to 1.08% between 2021 and 2027. Between 2027 and 2032 dwelling growth should slow to approximately 0.97% annualized. Overall dwelling stock in the region will increase at a rate of 1.04% annually between 2021 and 2050.

View the long-range projections reports of affordability and population, housing, and employment (top right of the page) compiled by Licker Geospatial August 2021 and rennie intelligence, June 2019.